The discussion about the peak of the Bitcoin bull run has always been a focal point in the crypto market. Some have used the Stock-to-Flow model to conclude that the peak is $288,000; others infer that $120,000 is the ceiling based on historical cycles. Considering the pace of institutional capital getting on board and changes in market structure, the peak range for Bitcoin in this bull run is more likely to be between $150,000 and $200,000. This range represents a 3-fold premium over the institutional holdings cost (the current average holding cost for Grayscale is about $50,000), and it also aligns with the pattern of previous bull runs where the "peak value doubled from the previous high" (the high point in 2021 was $69,000).

1. The underlying logic of the top range: from retail frenzy to institutional pricing

The top of the bull run in 2021 ($69,000) was driven by retail FOMO sentiment, while the institutional characteristics of the current market are reshaping the pricing logic:

- The safety margin of institutional holdings: Institutions like BlackRock and Invesco have increased their Bitcoin holdings through spot ETFs, with an average cost concentrated in the range of $45,000 to $60,000. According to the traditional finance "3x premium take profit" strategy, $150,000 to $180,000 is their first target level, and the sell-off of this portion of funds may form a temporary peak.
- Liquidity Siphon Effect: The current market capitalization share of Bitcoin has risen to 48% (the lowest point of 39% during the 2021 bull run). The preference of institutional funds for leading assets has resulted in Bitcoin absorbing over 70% of the incremental funds during the upward cycle, which may make the upper range more narrow than in historical cycles.
- Constraints of the derivatives market: The open interest for Bitcoin options has surpassed 80 billion USD, with the open interest for put options in the range of 150,000 to 200,000 USD being 2.3 times that of other ranges, indicating that institutions have laid out a large number of hedging positions in this range, which may suppress excessive price deviations.

It is important to note that the "top range" is not an absolute peak. During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin oscillated around the $10,000 range for two weeks before suddenly soaring to $20,000; in 2021, after consolidating around the $40,000 range, it doubled to $69,000 in three weeks. This suggests that the $150,000-$200,000 range may only be the first stage top, and under extreme sentiment, there is a possibility of briefly reaching $300,000.

2. Personalized decision-making for selling opportunities: from asset size to risk preference

There is no standard answer to "When to sell"; it depends on three core variables:

- Holdings scale and capital attributes: If the Bitcoin holdings account for more than 50% of an individual's total assets, it is recommended to start reducing holdings in batches at $150,000 (reduce 5% for every $10,000 increase) to avoid the impact of a single asset's volatility on overall financial security; if it is merely idle capital allocation (accounting for less than 10%), $200,000 can be set as the first profit-taking point, retaining 30% position to speculate on extreme market conditions.
- The thickness of the safety cushion at the cost line: early holders who got on board below $30,000 in March 2020 have more than 15 times floating profit and can adopt a "pyramid selling" strategy (leave 10% of the bottom position for long-term holdings and reduce the rest proportionally); investors who chase the price above $100,000 in 2023 need to set $150,000 as the breakeven point, prioritizing the safety of their principal.
- Timing of cash flow needs: If you plan to use Bitcoin profits to replace rigid expenses such as real estate and education, it is recommended to start executing the selling plan 6 months before the target price is reached (reducing holdings by 1/6 each month) to avoid selling prices falling below expectations due to liquidity shocks.

In the 2021 bull run, investors who cashed out at $60,000 may seem to have missed out on the subsequent increase of $9,000, but they successfully avoided the following 58% correction. The essence of selling is not to pursue "selling at the highest point," but to find the "balance point between risk and reward."

III. The Ecological Transition of Institutional Bull Markets: The Twilight of Altcoins or Structural Opportunities?

In this cycle known as the "institutional bull run", the market ecology is undergoing irreversible changes:

- The survival space of altcoins has been compressed: Compliance requirements for institutional funds (such as the SEC's token classification standards) have excluded over 90% of altcoins from institutional allocation lists. Data shows that in this bull run, the average increase of altcoins is only 1.2 times that of Bitcoin (compared to 3.8 times in 2021), and the concentration of funds has increased, with the top 100 altcoins accounting for 85% (compared to 62% in 2021).
- The differentiation between new and old coins has intensified: New coins launched after 2023 (such as SEI, SUI) have generally experienced higher price increases due to institutional backing and narrative innovation compared to old coins launched before 2017. This is because old coins have accumulated a large number of locked positions (for example, ETH has 12 million coins locked above $4000), while the circulating supply of new coins is concentrated in the hands of project parties and institutions, making them more susceptible to capital movement.
- Bitcoin-pegged value reassessment: The exchange rate of altcoins priced in Bitcoin (such as ETH/BTC) continues to decline, with ETH depreciating by 65% compared to its peak against Bitcoin in 2021. This means that even if some altcoins double in fiat price, if they underperform Bitcoin, it essentially results in a loss—this "Bitcoin-centric" thinking is becoming the survival foundation in the institutional era.

For retail investors, rather than chasing after "100x new coins", it is better to focus on structural opportunities within the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as the inscription market brought by the Ordinals protocol and the implementation of payment scenarios in the Lightning Network. These areas can both enjoy the benefits of Bitcoin's rise and avoid the regulatory risks associated with altcoins.

4. The Long-Term Holding Logic of Bitcoin: The Source of Happiness Beyond Price Fluctuations

While discussing selling strategies, it is more important to understand the unique value of Bitcoin as a "anti-fragile asset":

- Time rose with purchasing power preservation: Over the past 10 years, Bitcoin has achieved an annualized return of 127% against fiat currencies, far exceeding gold (7.8%) and the Nasdaq index (14.3%). Even if purchased at the peak in 2021 and held until now, the annualized return still reaches 18%. This ability to cross cycles provides long-term holders with mental stability.
- The compound effect of flow experience: The "delayed gratification" in the process of holding coins is essentially a practice against human weakness. Investors who have held on since 2015 (at a cost of $200) not only achieved a return of 700 times but also cultivated a numbness to market fluctuations—this mindset is often more valuable than wealth itself.
- The ultimate hedge against decentralization: As global central banks continue to expand their balance sheets (with global M2 increasing by 300% since 2008), Bitcoin's total supply cap of 21 million coins has become one of the few hard currencies that can resist fiat currency dilution. This attribute has gradually made it a hybrid of "digital gold + inflation-resistant bonds" in institutional asset allocation.

Conclusion: Finding a balance between certainty and possibility

The significance of predicting the top lies not in accurately capturing the peak, but in establishing a set of response strategies: a staggered selling plan in the range of $150,000 to $200,000 is a certain action to cope with institutional funds exiting; retaining 10% to 20% of Holdings leaves room for the possibility of extreme market conditions.

In an institutionally led bull run, the survival rule for retail investors has shifted from "betting on the target" to "understanding the cycle." When Bitcoin eventually reaches the top range, those who can formulate a selling strategy based on their own situation and are not swept away by market sentiment will be the ones who can truly convert paper profits into capital that endures through bear markets. After all, the ultimate profit in the crypto market has never been about selling at the highest point, but about being able to survive to enter the next cycle in every round! #ETH突破$4700#